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Welcome to my preview and predictions for UFC 76 ‘Knockout’. I must admit that I’m looking forward to this show more than I have to any other UFC show all year. I think 4 of the 5 matches have the potential to be very entertaining fights and a couple have some major title implications. I’m going to break down the card in my usual way and my 1979 U.S. quarter is here for 1 last go-round in our battle for supremacy.
Welterweight Bout:
Anthony "Rumble" Johnson:23, 6'2, 170, 4-0-0
Vs.
Rich "No Love" Clementi: 31, 5'9, 170, 34-12-1
This fight was made on short notice as a replacement for the postponed Light Heavyweight contest between Jason Lambert and Wilson Gouveia. At Fight Night 10 on 06/12 of this year, Anthony “Rumble” Johnson made his UFC debut on just a few days notice. In his bout with Chad Reiner, Johnson made a statement and introduced himself to the UFC with a 13 second KO. He was set to face Jess Liaudin at UFC 75 but withdrew due to injury.
Clementi is a veteran of the UFC and was a cast member on the Ultimate Fighter season 4. Clementi is 1-3 in the UFC with the loan victory coming over Ross Pointon at Fight Night 8 back on 01/25. His last loss was to Roan Carneiro at Fight Night 9 on 04/05.
It is hard to get a read on Johnson after only 13 seconds of action but he is pretty charismatic and does have the ability to KO someone in 13 seconds. This smacks of “Lets get this guy another fight we think he can win”, so that they can make him a star. Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires. Clementi has the experience edge but I became a fan of Johnson and am predicting him to win.
Winner: Anthony Johnson
Coin Picks: Rich Clementi
Lightweight Bout (Dark):
Michihiro "Micci" Omigawa: 31, 5'6, 155, 4-4-0
Vs.
"Handsome" Matt Wiman: 23, 5'10, 155, 7-3-0
Matt Wiman is coming off an appearance on the Ultimate Fighter 5 where he was a quarter-finalist and a victory over Brian Geraghty on the TUF 5 Finale on 06/23.
Omigawa is a student of Judo and came to MMA in 2005. His record is .500 but what does that really mean?
Wiman is a pretty well rounded fighter with Jiu-jitsu and a good standup game.
I’m going with Wiman on the count of familiarity.
Winner: Matt Wiman
Coin Picks: Michihiro Omigawa
Heavyweight Bout (Dark):
Christian "The Hungarian Nightmare" Wellisch: 6'3, 237, 8-2-0
Vs.
Scott Junk: 28, 6'1, 265, 6-1-0
Junk is making his UFC debut and is a replacement for Justin McCully. I know that Junk has fought primarily in Hawaii but that’s about all I know. I’m not real familiar with Wellisch either but he is 1-1 in the UFC with a win over Anthony Perosh at UFC 66, which followed his debut loss to Cheick Kongo at UFC 62.
In a case like this, I’ve got to look for some flimsy and wacky reason to justify my pick. Thank God Wellisch provided me with such a reason.
Strengths: My Chin and my grapefruits
I love that answer, so he will win.
Winner: Christian Wellisch
Coin Picks: Christian Wellisch
Lightweight Bout (Dark):
Diego "The Octopus" Saraiva: 25, 5'6, 155, 9-5-1
Vs.
Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stevens: 21, 5'9, 155, 14-3-0
This is a must win fight for both of these men. Saraiva is 0-2 so far and this is the last fight on his initial UFC contract. He lost to Dustin Hazelett at UFC 67 and then to Jorge Gurgel in what was said to be an entertaining fight at UFC 73. He’s a strong Brazilian Jiu-jitsu fighter and he was close to winning the Gurgel fight.
Stevens is making his second appearance in the Octagon after losing to Din Thomas at UFC 71. The finish was pretty spectacular as Stevens had an armbar on and Thomas lifted him up and powerbombed him down knocking him out winning the fight. Stevens took time away from the UFC since then going 1 and 1 in a couple of smaller shows. UFC doesn’t really like it when guys who are under deals to them lose in fights to non-UFC contracted talent.
Stevens is more a standup fighter while Saraiva prefers things on the ground. Stevens is a very young fighter at the age of 21 and is said to have a bright future. Saraiva really needs this fight. If it stays up Stevens should have the advantage but if Saraiva can get him to the ground it could be a short night for Stevens. I’ll predict Saraiva by third round submission.
Winner: Diego Saraiva
Coin Picks: Jeremy Stevens
Welterweight Bout:
Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez: 25, 5'11, 170, 19-1-0
Vs.
Jon Fitch: 29, 6'0, 170, 19-2-0
Diego Sanchez is coming off a loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69 where everyone predicted that Koscheck could out wrestle Sanchez but he ended up out striking him. Sanchez nearly retired before the fight due to a very bad staff infection that didn’t come out until after the fight was well over. The fight was expected to be a classic between 2 bitter rivals but ended up drawing a lot of boos from the Houston crowd.
Jon Fitch is on a very long winning streak and is undefeated in the UFC. His last victory was over Roan Carneiro back at Fight Night 10 on 06/12. Fitch is one of those guys who it was hard for UFC to find opponents for because he’s so good and was so unknown. There is a connection between Fitch and Koscheck that may work to Fitch’s advantage in this fight.
Fitch is a wrestler and Sanchez is a striker. But Fitch also possesses some power of his own and is definitely on a hot streak.
It is hard to imagine Sanchez losing 2 fights in a row, but the possibility is strong. Fitch has shown an ability to recover from trouble and turn the tables back in his favor. I’m going to go with Fitch by second round submission in his true coming out party to a PPV audience.
Winner: Jon Fitch
Coin Picks: Diego Sanchez
Light Heavyweight Bout:
Kazuhiro "Kaz" Nakamura: 28, 5'10, 205, 11-6-0
Vs.
Lyoto Machida: 29, 6'1, 205, 10-0-0
This is the lesser of the Pride debuts on this show. Nakamura is ranked by many in the bottom half of the top 10 Light Heavyweights in the world. Machida is known for not being very aggressive and thus he’s got a lot of decision wins, in fact his wins over both Sam Hoger and David Heath in the UFC have been by decision. Euan can tell you how exciting that fight with Heath was since he saw it live.
I’ve not seen Nakamura but he is a judo practitioner. I really don’t expect this to be a standup fight as it really isn’t the style of either. It may be hard for Machida to engage given his overwhelming willingness to not do so. I’m going to say that this time Nakamura defeats Machida by Unanimous decision in a lackluster fight.
Winner: Kazuhiro Nakamura
Coin Picks: Kazuhiro Nakamura
Light Heavyweight Bout:
Forrest Griffin: 28, 6'3, 205, 14-4-0
Vs.
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua: 25, 6'1, 205, 16-2-0
Time to talk about the debut of the man who many consider to be the top Light Heavyweight in the world. Rua holds a victory over Quinton Jackson back in 2005. He’s outstanding at pretty much all aspects of the game.
One thing about Rua is that Pride fighters haven’t faired so well in the UFC lately. Rua will not be able to use the lethal soccer kicks that were so effective for him in some of his Pride destructions.
Across the way is a vastly improved Forrest Griffin. Griffin learned after being knocked out by Keith Jardine at UFC 66 that it was ok to avoid getting punched in the face. So at UFC 72 he was bobbing and weaving and fighting a more intelligent fight against Hector Ramirez. It wasn’t as exciting as many of Forrest’s prior fights but he’ll take that over being knocked out any day.
Expect a standup fight here though if it does go to the ground, Forrest Griffin is in trouble. In the words of Griffin from Wednesday’s fight night: “Rua’s very good and that sucks”, and everyone including all the guys at the HTF who I’ve been touting Rua to for the better part of a year will find out. Of course, a loss is not out of the question.
Winner: Mauricio Rua
Coin Picks: Mauricio Rua
Lightweight Bout:
Thiago Tavares: 22, 5'7, 155, 16-0-0
Vs.
Tyson Griffin: 23, 5'6, 155, 9-1-0
Thiago Tavares is 2-0 in the UFC with a decision victory over Naoyuki Kotani on 04/05 at Fight Night 9. He followed that up with a submission of Jason Black at Fight Night 10 on 06/12 by submission in the second round. He’s very strong and he’s proficient in Muay Thai and Jiu-Jitsu.
Tyson Griffin is one of the more exciting fighters in the 155-pound division. He is 2-1 in the UFC with a submission victory over David Lee at UFC 63 followed by a Unanimous Decision loss to Frankie Edgar at UFC 67. The Edgar fight was a potential fight of the year candidate and he followed it up with a controversial split decision win over Clay Guida at UFC 72 on 06/16.
This should make for an exciting fight with both men willing to let the fight go where it goes. Griffin is a wrestler but he has no problem standing and Tavares is also unafraid to stand as well.
One thing about Griffin is that while he’s a good fighter, he’s the only man to beat WEC Featherweight Champ Urijah Faber; his last 2 fights have been close. In fact, I thought he lost the Guida fight and was surprised a little when he got the win.
This is a close call but I’m going to go with Thiago Tavares because he’s looked more dominant lately though Griffin’s last 2 fights have been against tougher competition. I expect a unanimous decision win for Tavares.
Winner: Thiago Tavares
Coin Picks: Thiago Tavares
Light Heavyweight Bout:
"The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine: 31, 6'2, 205, 12-4-1
Vs.
"The Ice Man" Chuck Liddell: 37, 6'2, 205, 20-4-0
This is a big bout in the 205-pound division. Liddell and Jardine are both coming off of losses at UFC 76. Jardine was upset by the 6-to-1 underdog Houston Alexander while Liddell was knocked out cold by Quinton Jackson ending his 7-fight win streak and UFC Light Heavyweight Championship reign.
Neither Jardine nor Liddell can afford to drop back-to-back fights. Liddell wants to rematch Jackson and before then a dream match with Wanderlei Silva is possibly in the cards. Jardine would drop out of contention and face a long road back should he lose his second in a row.
People wondered when the bout was announced if it was a main event level fight. The fact that both men are coming off of loses makes that a fair question but the reality is that any fight Chuck Liddell is in is a main event level fight. Had both of them been victorious at UFC 71, nobody would be asking if it was main event worthy.
You know what you’re going to get from both of these guys at this point. It is going to be a standup fight. Liddell is good at defending takedowns and getting back to his feet but I don’t see Jardine trying to go there. So the question is which one of these guys is the better striker? The answer is obviously Liddell. Now this doesn’t mean Jardine has no hope because Liddell can be knocked out. However, Liddell’s fighting stance is so unique it is hard to train for let alone to find someone with Liddell’s power.
I’m going to not go out on a limb by predicting that Liddell is going to knock Jardine out, maybe early second round if it isn’t over by then.
Winner: Chuck Liddell
Coin Picks: Keith Jardine
I’ll have live round-by-round coverage and scoring starting at 10:00 PM ET. You can check out the rest of the staff’s predictions Click Here
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