UFC Fight Night 11 Preview and Predictions

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I’m back for the first of 4 big MMA Previews this week. I’ve got this show, plus the IFL Finals, UFC 76 and Cage Rage 23. So expect some MMA goodness this week. I’ve also brought back my favorite whipping coin the 1979 United States quarter which I’ve yet to lose to in the 5 previous pick contests.

Welterweight Bout (Dark):
Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves: 23, 5'8, 170, 16-4-0
Vs.
Kuniyoshi Hironaka: 30, 5'10, 170, 11-3-0
Alves is making his return to the UFC for the first time since UFC 66 where he stopped Tony DeSouza in the second round. He’s been off serving a drug suspension since then but looks to improve on his 4-2 UFC record. His UFC victories have come against Ansar Chalangov, Derrick Noble, WEC Welterweight John Alessio and Desouza. His losses were to Spencer Fisher in Alves’ UFC debut and to Jon Fitch. Fitch is a common opponent for both Alves and Hironaka and they both were defeated Alves by TKO and Hironaka by decision.
Hironaka is making his third appearance in the Octagon, losing to Fitch in his debut at UFC 64 in October 2006 but rebounding to defeat Forrest Petz at Fight Night 9 in April of this year. In the Fitch fight, Hironaka took quite the beating but Fitch was unable to finish him.
This would ordinarily be a tough fight for me to call. Both guys are going to prefer a standup game but if one shows a clear edge the other will look to take it to the ground. Hard to pick the better slugger which is why this is tough. However, the decision became easy once I got a look at Hironaka’s Q&A with UFC.com

Thoughts on upcoming opponent, Thiago Alves? Thiago-san is very aggressive and fast so I am planning to out-do all that he possesses and showcase what Japanese fighters are all about. He will be in for an MMA clinic in Las Vegas and I hope he likes it.

That’s a 5 star answer if I’ve ever heard it. I’ll take Kuniyoshi Hironaka by decision and I hope this fight makes air so Art has to type Kuniyoshi Hironaka a few times.
Winner: Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Coin Picks: Thiago Alves

Lightweight Bout (Dark):
Cole "Magrino" Miller: 23, 6'1, 155, 12-2-0
Vs.
Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia: 27, 5'10, 155, 14-2-0
Cole Miller was a lightweight on season 5 of the Ultimate Fighter and we’ve got a whole theme of former TUF cast members fighting on this show. Miller was eliminated from TUF by Joe Lauzon after defeating Monsta Lobsta Alan Berube in his first fight. On the TUF 5 Finale, Miller took on Andy Wang winning by TKO in 1:10 of Round 1.
Garcia has 2 fights under his UFC belt. He’s suffered a decision loss to Roger Huerta in a slugfest at UFC 69. The fight was one of the better of the whole year and to reward Garcia, UFC decided to feed him Monsta Lobsta Alan Berube on the TUF 5 Finale. It was a feeding alright as Garcia put an owning on Berube winning by submission at 4:22 in the first round. So both men submitted Berube in the first round, only Garcia’s happened in a fight that wasn’t an exhibition. However, that makes them both heroes in my eyes because Berube annoyed me to know end.
Garcia showed a willingness to stand and trade with Huerta back in April. Both of these men prefer to go the submission route which tells me that this fight will eventually end up on the ground. Another tough fight for me to call because I like both guys. I am going to go with Garcia based on the flimsy premise that he’s a bad boy. A prediction I’m more confident in is that this will be another fun fight while it lasts.
Winner: Leonard Garcia
Coin Picks: Cole Miller

Welterweight Bout (Dark):
Edilberto Crocota: 24, 6'0, 170, 10-1-1
Vs.
"The Silent Assassin" Luke Cummo: 27, 6'0, 170, 8-4-0
Ah, Luke. Crazy wackly Luke Cummo. Luke was one of the few personalities showcased on Season 2 of TUF and since then has gone 2-2 in the UFC. He lost to Joe Stevenson at the TUF 2 Finale in a really fun fight. He bounced back with a win over Jason Von Flue at Fight Night 4 before losing to Jonathan Goulet at Fight Night 5. In his last bout at UFC 69, Cummo defeated Josh Haynes by TKO in the second round. Luke seems to have a pattern of win one lose one which is good news for Crocota in theory. Reason 1 of many why you should love Luke?

Thoughts on upcoming opponent, Edilberto Crocota? He looks scary. I'd better train my ass off.

As for Crocota at UFC 70 he made his Octagon debut and was on the losing end to England’s Paul Taylor. That was the first loss in Crocota’s MMA career. If I’m Luke, I’m scared that this man trains boxing with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Anderson Silva. Hell, I’m not Luke and I’m still scared.
Luke is just one of those guys who it is hard to pick against because he’s such a scrapper. He hung tough with Joe Stevenson at a time when nobody gave him a hope in hell of doing so. Still I’m going to take Crocota in a mild upset just to be different. He’d better win if he wants to be brought back going 0-2 in your first 2 UFC bouts is a tough thing to recover from.
Winner: Edilberto Crocota
Coin Picks: Luke Cummo

Lightweight Bout (Dark):
"Mighty”"Joe Veres: 29, 5'6, 155, 5-1-0
Vs.
Gray "The Bully" Maynard: 28, 5'8, 155, 3-0-1
This is Veres’ debut in the UFC. According to his profile, Veres did some High School and college wrestling and decided against Olympic training. He’s been fighting since 2002. He lists his strengths as wrestling, power and striking. His favorite technique is belief in himself which I didn’t know was a technique. I must say thought that I don’t usually dig nicknames, but Mighty Joe Veres seems to work.
Gray Maynard was another cast member on season 5 of the Ultimate fighter. He made it all the way to the semis on that show before falling to eventual winner Nate Diaz. Maynard is a great wrestler who trains with Randy Couture which seems to benefit people for some hard to explain reason. Maynard is coming off of a no contest with Rob Emerson at the TUF 5 Finale where the NSAC ruled that both he and Emerson had been knocked out on a big Maynard slam.
I’m picking Gray Maynard because of familiarity and his strong wrestling background. Veres could surprise me but that’s the choice for this one.
Winner: Gray Maynard
Coin Picks: Gray Maynard

Welterweight Bout (Dark):
"The Road Warrior" Jonathan Goulet: 28, 6'0, 170, 19-8-1
Vs.
Dustin Hazelett: 21, 6'1, 170, 11-3-0
This was originally supposed to be Goulet Vs. Mike Swick in the latter’s first fight at Welterweight. However, Swick pulled out due to injury and is replaced by Hazelett. It sucks to be Dustin Hazelett. He takes a fight on short notice, he’s known for having entertaining fights in the Octagon and yet when he is named the replacement the fight is dropped to dark status.
Goulet is making his return to the UFC after more than a year away. He stands at 2-2 in the Octagon, defeating Jay Hieron and Luke Cummo with losses to Duane Ludwig in 11 seconds and Josh Koscheck. Goulet fights a lot in the TKO promotion in his home-country of Canada.

Goulet has a brutally honest assessment of his opponent, I’ll give him that.

What are your thoughts on your opponent, Dustin Hazelett? I don't even know him but I don't care. Maybe he's good, maybe not; I don't know what it's going to happen during that fight, but what I want to do is to push the pace and punish him because I need the win.

Allow me to introduce Mr. Goulet to his opponent Dustin Hazelett. Hazelett started off with a loss to Tony DeSouza in his UFC debut at Shamrock-Ortiz III, the final chapter. He has rebounded with wins over Diego Saraiva and Stevie Lynch this year.
Goulet likes to stand, Hazelett looks for submissions. I’m going to go with Goulet in this fight due to preparation time, though if Hazelett comes in with a chip on his shoulder for being demoted to dark fight status, that could be trouble. Goulet by second round KO.
Winner: Jonathan Goulet
Coin Picks: Jonathan Goulet

Middleweight Bout:
Nate "The Rock" Quarry: 35, 6'0, 185, 14-2-0
Vs.
Pete "Drago" Sell: 24, 5'11, 185, 7-4-0
Quarry was a participant on season 1 of the Ultimate Fighter but had to withdraw from the competition due to an injury. He ran off a string of 3 successive victories in the UFC at the TUF 1 Finale over Ludune Sincaid, at UFC 53 over Shonie Carter and at Fight Night 1 over his fight night 11 opponent Pete Sell. This earned him a shot at Rich Franklin’s Middleweight title at UFC 56 on 11/19/05 in which Franklin fustigated him in 2:34 of Round 1. Quarry was absent from the UFC for quite awhile and is back almost 2 years later. It was injuries that set Quarry back and kept him out for so long.
Sell was a cast member on TUF Season 4 ‘The Comeback’. He debuted at UFC 51 defeating Phil Baroni by third round submission. The loss to Quarry followed in August of ’05. On the TUF 4 Finale he lost to Scott Smith in one of the craziest finishes you’re ever going to see when he wounded Smith with a shot charged in for the kill and was knocked out. His last fight was a UFC 69 loss to Thales Leites.
Hopefully, this fight lasts longer than the first time these met when Quarry finished him in 42 seconds. I think this is it for Sell in the UFC unless he wins which means I think this is it for Sell in the UFC. Quarry is really talented and it will be good to see him back.
Winner: Nate Quarry
Coin Picks: Nate Quarry

Lightweight Bout:
Junior Assuncao: 25, 5'9, 155, 6-2-0
Vs.
Nate Diaz: 22, 6'0, 155, 6-2-0
Diaz is the younger brother of Nick Diaz who was victorious on Saturday’s EXC show from Hawaii. Diaz was also the winner of season 5 of TUF defeating Manny Gamburyan in the finals back in June. Nate is also a much less hate inspiring fighter than older brother Nick.
Assuncao made his UFC debut at UfC 64 losing to Kurt Pellegrino via submission. At UFC 70 back in April of this year, he submitted David Lee in the second round. I’m sure even though nobody would admit it that Assuncao is an opponent to allow Diaz to showcase his stuff. Unfortunately, it may not end up going that way.
Both guys are jiu-jitsu practitioners but both also have no problem standing and trading. I’ve got a funny feeling we could see an upset but I’ll take Diaz by second rund submission. I just think he’s the better fighter.
Winner: Nate Diaz
Coin Picks: Nate Diaz

Middleweight Bout:
Terry Martin: 26, 5'9, 185, 18-2-0
Vs.
Chris "The Crippler" Leben: 27, 5'11, 185, 15-4-0
Terry Martin is a prime example of what a switch in weight class can do for a guy. Martin started off his UFC career with back-to-back losses to James Irvin and Jason Lambert at 205. He dropped to Middleweight and fustigated Jorge Rivera at UFC 67 winning in 14 seconds. He followed that up with a TKO of Ivan Salaverry at UFC 71 in May.
Leben is another cast member from the Ultimate Fighter’s first season. He started off 5-0 in the UFC with wins over Jason Thacker, Patrick Cote, Edwin Dewees, Jorge Rivera and Luigi Fioravanti. Then it happened, Leben faced Anderson Silva in his UFC debut and was flattened in 0:49 in June of last year. He rebounded with a victory over Jorge Santiago in August. He has since lost back to back fights to Jason MacDonald at UFC 66 and then Kalib Starnes at UFC 71. So Leben really needs a win here.
There’s no question as to what this is going to be. Leben likes to stand and Martin has very heavy hands. Don’t expect a battle of ground work and Jiu-jitsu or wrestling and submissions. So when both guys like to bang and are going to bang, who wins? I’m predicting Martin, his KO power is outstanding and Leben hasn’t been the same since being on the bad side of an Anderson Silva beating.
Winner: Terry Martin
Coin Picks: Chris Leben

Lightweight Bout:
Din "DinYero" Thomas: 30, 5'9, 155, 23-7-0
Vs.
Kenny "KenFlo" Florian: 30, 5'10, 155, 9-3-0
Florian was the Welterweight runner-up on the Ultimate Fighter season 1 losing to Diego Sanchez in the finals. Hatred of Florian’s nickname aside, this man has really improved since the 5 round beating he took from Sean Sherk at UFC 64 to crown a lightweight champion. He’s finished Dokonjonosuke Mishima at Fight Night 9 in April and then Alvin Robinson back in July at UFC 73. Florian is a late replacement in this match for Spencer Fisher. As much as I was looking forward to that, I want to see this one even more.
Din Thomas was on TUF 4 and has a 5-2 UFC record. He’s lost to BJ Penn and Kaol Uno but does hold a victory over current Welterweight champ Matt Serra via majority decision.
I mentioned in the last fight that it would be contested on the feet. Well, this one is likely headed to the ground to be a battle of grappling and submissions. They’re not going to be afraid to stand for awhile but I think it will hit the ground sooner rather than later. So the question is who’s better? It is a close one but I believe that while Florian is a very tough opponent and a win in this fight wouldn’t shock me, Thomas is in the next class above. This could be a key determining fight in the race to possibly crown a new Lightweight champion should Sean Sherk’s appeal be denied. I’m going to take Thomas but I never do this, so this should tell you how close I think it can be, I’ll take Thomas by split decision.
Winner: Din Thomas
Coin Picks: Kenny Florian

I hope you’ve enjoyed this preview. Art Shimko will have live coverage of the SpikeTV portion of this event starting at 9:00 PM ET. If you wish to see the rest of the staff’s predictions, Click Here



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