UFC 74 Preview and Predictions

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Welcome to my predictions rundown for UFC 74 ‘Respect’ on 08/25/2007. If you’ve never read one of my previews before, where have you been? Ok, seriously if you’ve never read this before I try to combine humor with analysis as I breakdown each fight and then usually end up making a guess when it comes to the winners. Though I’d argue that in a lot of cases in MMA today you’re just better off guessing because if the first half of 2007 has shown us anything is that what we think we know can change rather quickly.

Lightweight Bout (Dark):
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio: 34, 5'10, 155, 14-4-0 (+100)
Vs.
Clay "The Carpenter" Guida: 25, 5'7, 155, 21-5-0 (-130)
Aurelio is making his UFC debut on this show. He’s lost 4 bouts in his career to: Takanori Gomi, Mitsuhiro Ishida, Dokonjonosuke Mishima and Antonio McKee. He holds victories over Gomi, Rich Clemmenti, Naoyuki Kotani and Masakazu Imanari among others. He’s dropped his last to fights in Pride to Gomi and Ishida prior to that and this is his first bout since Pride Bushido 13 last November. He owns 9 submissions, 2 KO’s and 3 decision victories.
It kind of sucks to be Clay Guida. He gets robbed by the judges at UFC 72 in his fight with Tyson Griffin, hey I picked Griffin, but Guida realistically won that fight and this is his reward. Oh, and this is a non-televised fight so yeah, once again, it sucks to be him. He can however take comfort in the fact that he is a small favorite headed in to the contest.
Guida has suffered back to back losses to Griffin and Din Thomas after securing a victory over Justin James in his UFC debut. A loss would be his third straight and a 1-3 record in the UFC isn’t what you would consider a positive, but Guida is an entertaining fighter so he might not be in as much trouble as you’d think. 52.38% of his victories have come by submission and I’ll just let you math majors figure out how many that actually is.
I expect a fast paced contest but I don’t see this being a standup war. Both guys are comfortable on the ground and looking for submissions so expect it to end up there before too long. I’m picking Aurelio to win because really looking at what has happened to Guida he probably broke a mirror and is in for maybe 6.5 more years of this bad luck.
Winner: Marcus Aurelio – Unanimous Decision

Heavyweight Bout (Dark):
Antoni Hardonk: 31, 6'4, 245, 5-3-0 (+150)
Vs.
Frank Mir: 28, 6'1, 240, 9-2-0 (-180)
As a fighter, I enjoy Frank Mir as a broadcaster. This was originally to take place at UFC Fight Night 9 in April but Mir got injured at a buffet or something and was replaced by Justin McCully who defeated Hardonk by unanimous decision. Hardonk is a dutch kick boxer who has dropped 3 fights in his 8-fight career all of them by decision. If this goes the distance, he may have an advantage over Mir based on how Mir has looked in his last 3 fights.
Mir is just hard for me to get a read on. It is clear that he hasn’t been the same since his motorcycle accident that put him out of action for a long time and cost him the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Since the accident, he has come back and has compiled a 1-2 record with his only win being an incredibly boring decision victory over Dan Christison at UFC 60 and the less said about that one the better. Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera have done the honors of handing him those 2 losses. Mir like Hardonk has 3 losses in his career but unlike Hardonk all have come by way of knockout.
This is really due or die for both of these guys. Hardonk is 1 and 1 in the UFC but hasn’t done anything to stand out and if Frank Mir loses another boring fight, we might be calling him WEC commentator Frank Mir and not heavyweight fighter Frank Mir. If the Frank Mir that shows up is the one who was around before the motor cycle accident then Hardonk is in for a tough fight but then again why would that guy show up now when he’s had 3 fights to figure it out and hasn’t yet? In this situation I refer to a classic legal battle fought in the courts centuries ago known in legal circles as Heads Vs. Tales. Heads says Hardonk and I always go with heads and am right almost half the time.
Winner: Antoni Hardonk – R2 TKO

Light Heavyweight Bout (Dark):
David Heath: 31, 5'11, 205, 9-1-0 (+240)
Vs.
Renato "Babalu" Sobral: 31, 6'1, 205, 27-7-0 (-330)
It is ½ of Euan’s favorite fight all-time, all his life as David Heath of Heath-Machida fame at UFC 70 steps in to take on a very tough Renato “Babalu” Sobral. Heath dropped a decision loss to Machida in a fight that Euan is so glad he saw on PPV and is so upset that we were unable to share in its greatness over here in the states. When Euan makes his picks I do believe that David Heath’s name will fall in close proximity to the word “Fuck”.
Then there is Babalu. He had a Light Heavyweight title shot at Chuck Liddell at UFC 62 which he did in fact not win. Then he battled Jason Lambert at UFC 68 in March. He dominated the first round of that fight but unfortunately for him, fights typically have more than 1 round. Lamber was able to KO Sobral at the 3:26 mark of round 2 and surprise a lot of people including myself.
I’ll keep my pick for this one kind of short. I like Babalu and don’t need to see David Heath potentially boring me at any time in the future. Therefor, here’s hoping for a Babalu rebound.
Winner: Renato “Babalu” Sobral – R1 fustigation (I hope)

Middleweight Bout (Dark):
Ryan Jensen: 29, 5'10, 185, 11-1-0
Vs.
Thales Leites: 25, 6'1, 185, 11-1-0
Jensen is making his UFC debut. He was to face Travis Lutter but I guess Lutter hurt his back carrying 3 crates of Cheetos up to his room, hey he needed a light snack, and so Lutter was out and Thales Leites is in. Jensen has never gone the distance in his career with 3 KO’s and 8 submissions to his credit. His single loss was to WEC Welterweight Brock Larson who is no slouch unless Carlos Condit or Jon Fitch are somehow involved.
Leites didn’t have the best start to his UFC career losing to Martin Kampmann at the TUF 4 Finale by Unanimous decision in a fight where he was gassed out by the end. He has since rebounded to post victories over Pete Sell at UFC 69 by Unanimous Decision and at the TUF 5 Finale on 06/23 he defeated Floyd Sword by Triangle Choke at 3:50 of Round 1. It is funny because for a time, we nearly had Travis Lutter and Tim Sylvia fighting on the same card. If Gabe Ruediger were still in the UFC that could’ve been the trifecta of hatred for Euan resulting in the best writing of his life. Alas, we’re down to none save for David Heath.
I’ve watched all of Leites’ UFC bouts. He’s a solid hand in the middleweight division, not likely to scare many of the top guys but can make it difficult for anyone looking to break in to that group. I think that Jensen will find out just how good Leites is as he’s being submitted in the first round.
Winner: Thales Leites – R1 Submission

Middleweight Bout:
Patrick "The Predator" Cote: 27, 5'11, 185, 10-4-0 (+190)
Vs.
Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove: 24, 6'6, 185, 10-3-0 (-240)
Speaking of Middleweights looking to move up the ranking, I’m not going to be doing that while talking about Patrick Cote. In fairness to Cote he did pick up his first UFC victory over Scott Smith at UFC 67 back in February by Unanimous decision. He has followed it up with a TKO of Jason Day at TKO 29 ‘Repercussion’ on 06/01 for TKO MMA.
Grove is the one who’s looking to move up although I think I would have preferred Aurelio-Guida to Grove-Cote but that’s also not the only televised bout I can say that about. Grove is a tall guy with a long reach at 6’6 and I remember the Patrick Cote-Scott Smith fight being kind of boring and whenever someone bores me they must be punished, impact on my correct predictions percentage be damned. I’m going to say Grove uses his big reach to KO Cote in round 1.
Winner: Kendall Grove – R1 KO

Lightweight Bout:
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson: 24, 5'7, 155, 32-7-0 (-300)
Vs.
Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino: 27, 5'8, 155, 16-2-0 (+230)
Now this is a fight I can honestly say I’m looking forward to seeing it. So of course, I’ll not be seeing it until much later as I’ll be at a concert during the show but lets not get sidetracked here.
Pellegrino defeated Nate Mohr by submission in their fight at Fight Night 9 back on April 5 of this year. On that same show, Joe Stevenson quickly tapped out Coke-head Melvin Guillard and that wasn’t even the worst thing to happen to Melvin that particular night.
Given the success of both of these men especially Stevenson, the winner would seem to be in line for a shot at the Lightweight Champion be it Sean Sherk or Vay Cant.
Pellegrino has won 80% of his fights by submission and I don’t think I need to tell you that’s 8 of 10 but I will in order to fill space.
Stevenson’s pretty good at all aspects of the game and I believe he’d have an advantage if the fight remained standing. I expect this will end up on the ground at some point and that eventually…Stevenson will be Kurt’s daddy.
Winner: Joe Stevenson – R2 Submission

Welterweight Bout:
Josh Koscheck: 29, 5'10, 170, 11-1-0 (+220)
Vs.
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre: 25, 5'10, 170, 13-3-0 (-280)
I said back in April when this fight was first discussed that I thought Koscheck had a very good shot to win it. People call GSP the Prototypical fighter of the future and while I do love GSP I think that label may be a bit premature. He gets hurt a lot and Matt Serra did knock him out, I know he had personal problems headed in to that fight but you can’t just explain that loss as the product of personal problems.
Koscheck is improving every time he steps inside the cage. He’s probably not going to out strike GSP but he is obviously the better wrestler. Koscheck winning this fight has the potential to be boring if it is just a series of takedowns, releases and takedowns again. But then again, I thought that would be his strategy against Diego Sanchez, I thought that he would lose and I thought that fight could be entertaining. Consider that your warning not to listen to me. I said back in April I thought Koscheck would win and I’m not going back on that now. I’m not going to pull a Euan on this one. The winner of this is pretty much a lock to get the first shot at the winner of Hughes-Serra in the Spring of 2008.
Winner: Josh Koscheck – Unanimous Decision

Lightweight Bout:
Alberto Crane: 31, 5'9, 155, 8-0-0 (+300)
Vs.
"El Matador" Roger Huerta: 23, 5'9, 155, 20-1-0 (-400)
This is the second televised fight that I want to see less than Guida-Aurelio. I appreciate the fact that the UFC wants to push Roger Huerta to the moon to bring in the Latino audience and I do enjoy watching him fight but this is the fifth straight fight for Huerta against someone making their UFC debut. This is also Huerta’s 4th fight since February which makes him a busy busy man. He had trouble with Doug Evans in the first round of their 06/23 fight but again that’s why fights have more than one round as he put the Alaskan wrestler away in the second.
As for Crane he has an incredible 7 submission victories in 8 fights with the lone other result being a decision win over Javier Vazquez at a KOTC event in 2003. He’s being brought in to be fed to Huerta and that almost backfired on UFC the last time they tried it. I’m begging UFC though if Huerta wins, his next fight must be against someone who has already had UFC experience. I’m going to predict Huerta by decision in a fun fight but probably not as much fun as I expect Guida-Aurelio to be.
Winner: Roger Huerta – Unanimous Decision

Heavyweight Championship Bout:
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga: 28, 6'1, 242, 8-1-0 (-130)
Vs.
Randy "The Natural" Couture: 44, 6'2, 220, 15-8-0 (+100)
Ok, everyone should know the deal about Randy Couture by this point. It is not safe to ever bet against this man. He absolutely owned Tim Sylvia back in March to win the Heavyweight championship, and yes Sylvia was hurt but Couture showed he still had what it took to get the job done and he still knew how to gameplan and could go the distance. It was one of those unforgettable moments in sports that people who saw it will remember forever and that ESPN will kick themselves over not covering for nearly twice that long.
Then there’s Gabriel Gonzaga. If you saw UFC 70 then you nearly saw the end of Mirko Cro Cop’s career at the foot of Gonzaga. You also saw that it wasn’t just a lucky kick as the fight was all Gonzaga’s up to that point. Gonzaga is coming in a slight favorite which I’m sure must thrill him knowing how well Couture does as the underdog. I know a lot of people put a lot of stock in the predictions of Randy Couture and in this fight, Couture has predicted a win for Couture. Yeah, I know you’re shocked.
The longer the fight goes I do think Couture does have an advantage and that’s strange to say about a man who is 44 years old. Gonzaga is a more well-rounded opponent than Couture got in Sylvia and would’ve gotten in Cro Cop and Randy himself knows that better than anyone.
When I think of this fight though, I just think of Gonzaga’s distruction of Cro Cop. I know you’re not supposed to pick against Randy Couture and I fully expect this prediction to be wrong just because that’s how it is going to work for me or so it would appear.
Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga – R2 KO

There you have my UFC 74 predictions. Art Shimko will have coverage of this event on the main page as I will be out of town. I will be back to cover ShowXC Elite Challenger Series however, so look for that. These are just my predictions, the rest of the staff’s picks, or at least those who remembered to do them can be found by Clicking Here


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